Convenors

Shane J. Cronin   Institute of Natural Resources   Massey University   New Zealand   e-mail: s.j.cronin@massey.ac.nz Alessandro Bonaccorso   Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologica (INGV)   Catania   Italy   e-mail: bonaccorso@ct.ingv.it

Description

Volcanic hazard assessment since its formal beginnings in the late 1970's has been based around the concept that "the past is the key to the future", with primary research activities concentrating on interpreting, from the geological record, the frequency, magnitude and nature of past eruption events at a particular volcano and using this to demonstrate the potential damage future eruptions may have. These activities still form the underpinning data upon which all good hazard assessments should be made. Increasingly the tools and techniques of hazard assessment have become more sophisticated and hazard assessments more specific. A host of statistical methods have been used to develop probabilistic forecasts of the spatio-temporal volcanic hazard, with differing techniques applied to developing assessments of hazard from multiple potential volcanoes and over volcanic records of variable length, age and complexity. The questions of both spatial and temporal hazard impacts have been addressed in a new light with contrasting methods. In addition, numerical models of a range of hazard phenomena have now become available to forecast the likely impact of scenarios of lava flows, ashfall, pyroclastic flow, lahar and debris avalanche. Integration of these deterministic methods with hazard mapping remains, however, challenging, as does the integration of probabilistic methodologies with the development of maps, planning guidelines and eruption response and recovery plans. Moreover mass-wast events from edifice collapse and recurrence of volcano earthquakes also pose a high-risk and should be included in hazard analysis. Given the shifting ground around hazard assessment, it is not surprising that the field of risk assessment has been even more problematic. Early attempts at risk used a simple function of value or vulnerability combined with hazard, with modern viewpoints on value and vulnerability becoming more complex as the socioeconomic success factors of communities become better described. With modern community planning integrating hazard and risk as well as socio-economic aspriartions of communities, risk assessment has become an integral part of any community growth and development. Tools to integrate volcanic hazard and risk implications into these activities are barely keeping pace. Hence, it is timely in the COV6 meeting to consider the following aspects of hazard and risk assessment for which we would like to invite papers: 1. What is the most appropriate and applicable statistical methodology needed to build spatio-temporal eruption hazard forecasts? 2. How can volcanic hazard evaluations can be integrated with and rated alongside other geological and technological hazards? 3. What methods can be used to evaluate the completeness of geological records for hazard analysis and how can records with missing data be most effectively used? 4. How can realistic time-variable hazard estimates for volcanic hazard be developed? 5. How can probabilistic hazard assessments be integrated with models and measures of socio-economic impact, loss and recovery cost? 6. How can probabilistic and deterministic hazard models be integrated into planning tools, maps and Geographic Information Systems? 7. How can complex multi-hazard evaluations be most effectively developed - from either multiple volcanoes, multiple eruption scenarios, cascading hazard processes or overlapping hazard processes from other related geological events? Apart from these particular themes, we would like to invite contributions on any aspect of volcanic hazard and risk assessment that demonstrate strong linkage with communities and industrial end user groups and show collaborate and multi-disciplinary methods for understanding and disseminating socio-economic risk to affected societies.